This striking pattern suggests that something very fundamental changed in the American social system around 1970.”. Finally, Turchin describes what he means by “instability,” a term he seems to apply sometimes to the state and sometimes to broader society, which he says dominates disintegrative phases. After introducing the three principles of SDT as applied to industrial societies, and offering an explanation and justification of his mathematical approach, in Part II Turchin expands on each of the three principles as applied to America. Here is a comprehensive list of all the Discord statistics you need to know including number of users, messages and more • 20 Discord Stats and Facts (2020) | … . Table of Exhibits 2014 Demographics Report MARITAL STATUS ..... 42 “As all these trends intensify, the end result is state bankruptcy and consequent loss of military control; elite movements of regional and national rebellion; and a combination of elite-mobilized and popular uprisings that expose the breakdown of central authority.” This drives the disintegrative phase of the secular cycle, involving increased mortality, decreased productivity, instability, political violence, war, and, potentially, collapse—followed, ultimately, by a new integrative phase, sometimes with a very different society, sometimes with much the same society, where the three principles reverse in unison. He would probably say it’s a coincidence, or one of many possible manifestations of underlying trends, that the modern Left got real traction about 1970, and has steadily gained power since.) Turchin calls this the science of “cliodynamics,” a neologism formed from the name of the muse of history and the term for the science of why things change (and also reflecting that society is a web, a “dynamical system”). On the other hand, my pessimism doesn’t come from math, but simply from viewing history, a lot of history, as well as human nature, and noting the obvious root causes of past historical declines over non-specific time periods. We’re all chained to the rhythm Mostly, though, it is patterns tied to data that he offers, and often patterns within patterns. During good times, elites prosper and act in unity; during bad times, elites turn on each other in an age of backstabbing and civil strife. Turchin sees America as being in a disintegrative phase that began in the 1970s and will peak starting in 2020. The classic American path to technological success has been for driven tinkerers to obsessively work to solve a problem, from Eli Whitney to Thomas Edison to Steve Jobs. As inequality grows, the politics become more poisonous. However, as a recent adherent to Eastern Orthodoxy, I approach analysis, as opposed to knowledge, of Orthodox theology as presumptively... You have likely never heard of the Finnish Civil War. If he were writing today, he would doubtless adduce the recent college admissions scandal, where the elite bribed their children’s way into prestigious colleges. 21 Search Popularity. I’m not religious (though unfortunately I doubt that an irreligious society can be truly virtuous), so I disagree with you on some topics, but by and large I share you view on society and where we should be going instead. After the Civil War, instability declined—but not to the levels of the early nineteenth century, and then spiked again around 1920 (this is an example of a sub-cycle subsumed within the longer, complete, secular cycle). Community Member. Crawford expands our minds by exploring... Michael Anton’s latest, half analysis and half prophecy, is simultaneously terrifying and clarifying. Cliodynamics is an attempt to view history through science, primarily through the science of statistics. Anyway, if Turchin is right, it’s probably too late at this point. Aha, so good (so good) So comfortable, we cannot see the trouble, trouble In most modern societies it is administrative—that is, bureaucratic. In 2019, the largest share of game players in the United Kingdom (UK) were young adults, aged between 16 and 24. Elites have competed more, on every axis, including conspicuous consumption, and are less unified. We’ll find out quite soon, I think. ★ Don't be a jerk. Stumblin’ around like a wasted zombie 50% of Reddit users, according to a 2015 survey, are between the ages of 18-24. And then we finish with Part IV, covering 1930 to 2010, and predicting beyond, based on the model. Dance, dance, dance to the distortion Some newly-minted lawyers get very high salaries, but there is now a bi-modal distribution, where the other peak, with many more students, is low salaries that are inadequate to pay back law school loans. Ages of Discord marshals Structural-Demograpic Theory and detailed historical data to show that this is, indeed, the case. I read two of Turchin’s books over the holidays and was going to recommend them to you. Modeling Structural-Demographic Processes 21 Part Two Overview of Structural Demographic Variables: 1780–2010 3. The greed over the people Turchin suggests that forewarned is forearmed, and perhaps using the knowledge he provides we can ameliorate the downstroke he expects in the 2020s, when all cycles concentrate to create the first truly low point in 150 years. Certainly, for example, some of my many complaints about the symptoms of degraded and stupid culture are subsumed within his measures of wellbeing. Here are the key stats from the PEW study regarding the demographic of twitter users: 19% of online adults age 18-24 have used twitter or something like it 20% of online adults age 25-34 have used twitter or something like it 10% of online adults age 35-44 " " " " 5% of online adults age 45-54 " " " " 4% of online adults age 55-64 " " " " To the rhythm, to the rhythm We should also encourage women to leave the workforce and stay home with children, and have more babies to ameliorate the coming population collapse—we’re not going to have any integrative phase if there are no children to participate. The book takes the reader on a roller-coaster ride through American history, from the Era of Good Feelings of the 1820s to our first Age of Discord, which culminated in the American Civil War, to post-WW2 prosperity and, finally, to our present, second Age of Discord. Some of those related to labor peace and the like; others involved reducing intraelite competition by expelling those not fitting a certain mold, such as Jews. This book is, fortunately, nothing like the terrible The Fourth Turning, a more famous and very stupid book. Stumblin’ around like a wasted zombie But predicting how and when those patterns will yield any particular result in any given society seems like astrology. It seeks to offer general principles that can be tested against historical data, and that testing is what Turchin offers here. He then ties the resulting graphs to measures of wellbeing, such as height of adults (which declined four centimeters from 1830 to 1900! I have always been keenly interested in comparative theology. Reddit averages 52 million daily active users as of Q4 2020. Intraelite competition is measured by, among other statistics, the numbers of law and business students, and their starting salaries over time. America flourished, the nature of an integrative phase. This statistic presents information on the number of registered users of Discord worldwide from 2017 to 2020. Your rose-colored glasses on Technically, it is an American born between 1945 and 1964. If something can’t go on forever, it won’t, but it may end tomorrow or in two hundred years. Turchin notes that in 2010 (this book was published in 2016) he predicted “the next decade is likely to be a period of growing instability in the United States and western Europe.” He is well-satisfied that he was right, and I think most people would agree. You must have JavaScript activated to purchase tickets. This malady only affects the Right, and I name it Scrutonism. When we are feeling particularly adventurous,... For Americans who think that so-called liberal democracy is neither, and in any case is a dead end, successful modern societies with a different political model always intrigue. So comfortable, we cannot see the trouble, trouble I think it’s broader—it should include the entire “professional-managerial elite,” as well as cultural centers of power, and the media and universities. Please fill in the RSVP quantity, confirmation name, and email fields. Discord servers are usually populated by people under the age of 25 who enjoy posting memes, shitpost, furry talk, anime, video games, for the most part. The 1950s “were the Golden Age for common Americans.” (We are told otherwise, but we are told lies. Yeah, we think we’re free discord reaction role bot. To the rhythm, to the rhythm If you wish for peace, prepare for war. Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History. In essence, this is violence, from minor riots to civil wars. Seventy percent of Americans (and counting) think so. Quite the contrary—it is easy to show certain patterns in history. This is a special review. We’ll see! After all, how on earth can yet another murderous rampage have anything to do with polarization in Congress? In one place, the local authorities were excavating a mass grave from the 1930s. During the Cold War, because of its buffer position, it was occasionally in the news. — Elvis Presley. This is particularly true of the members of its ruling class, who get the worse of the obvious comparison with Republican virtue,... More than twenty years ago, as a very young man, I traveled in Ukraine. I’m still not sure it’s not astrology, but I’m half convinced. Thus, his project is to develop mathematical models, then feed them historical data from different eras and see what comes out. But... Si vis pacem, para bellum. Very few, if any, I suspect. What that means exactly, we’ll see. Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History. Improving existing content. Modern Americans may be disconcerted to learn that the US right now has much in common with the Antebellum 1850s and, more surprisingly, with ancien régime France on the eve of the French Revolution. I have War and Peace and War, but haven’t read that. ), life expectancy, age of first marriage (which he notes is “only imperfectly correlated with social optimism”), and so forth. Yeah, we think we’re free It is special because it is the last of its kind. These are not phase changes, or a step function, but rather (smoothed) curves. Demography and Wellbeing 61 4. Thought we could do better than that Historical analysis shows that long spells of equitable prosperity and internal peace are succeeded by protracted periods of inequity, increasing misery, and political instability. Parents need to know that Discord - Chat for Gamers is a voice- and text-chat tool geared toward gamers. Every year, more and more Americans go on shooting sprees, killing strangers and passers-by—and now, increasingly, representatives of the state. From the publisher: We are on the wrong track. So, for example, he shows that when you overlay a graph of mass wellbeing on a graph for elite overproduction, you see that since 1780 there is a precise inverse relationship between the two—just as the SDT predicts. Do any Swiss children learn about him? As so many times before 3.98% Organic Share of Voice. This is the “elite overproduction principle.” And third, the “instability principle,” where population growth also leads to expansion of the state, resulting in increased taxes, which inevitably fail to cover expenses, leading to fiscal crisis. 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